Labour Market of Ukraine and Meeting Post-War Workforce Supply Market Demands
Abstract
Introduction. Full-scale military actions in Ukraine increased the dynamics of changes in the labour market, caused significant uncertainty in influencing factors, and increased the imbalance of supply and demand in the labour market, which was characterised as a crisis even before the invasion. This strengthened the need for a relevant assessment of the needs of the Ukrainian labour market and the possibility of its personnel support and management of labour resources, taking into account the risks for the country's economy and post-war reconstruction.
Aim and tasks. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the labour market of Ukraine in the post-war period and substantiate ways of meeting the market's personnel needs using the example of the construction and IT industries. The tasks of this study are to identify the factors affecting the labour market in the post-war period, assess the dynamics of changes in the balance of demand and supply in the labour market in the post-war period, and develop a mathematically formalised approach to the adaptive assessment of the labour market.
Results. The developed mathematically formalised approach to assessing the imbalance of the labour market in individual areas allowed the stabilisation of the demand and supply of the IT labour market in 2026 at a level 1.496 times lower than the maximum in 2023. In the construction industry, differentiation in sectoral priorities of post-war reconstruction has been determined, as evidenced by the expected shortage of personnel in this industry, which is 2.15 times higher than the indicator for all industries. This is also indicated by the differentiation in the demand for qualified workers from 20% to 60% for large and small construction enterprises.
Conclusions. The identified reasons for the uncertainty of factors affecting the labour market (losses in the quality of labour resources and forced migration) proved that post-war reconstruction would require an adaptive approach to managing labour resources at all levels. The lack of personnel in the post-war period will require a change in the concept of ensuring the competitiveness of domestic enterprises by using cheap labour. It was determined that the demand for qualified personnel in the post-war period for all industries would grow, which is confirmed by the dynamics of the index of change of employees, which is 30% higher for qualified workers than unskilled workers. Significant differentiation by micro-specialty influences the gap between demand and supply, which does not consider the market's needs.
Keywords:
labour market, workforce supply, demand imbalance, unemployment, labour resources.References
Barvinok, V. Yu., Artyukhova, N. O., Marci, A., Polishchuk, I. R., Vasylieva, T. A. (2023). Structuring “education – migration – labour market” chain. Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, 6, 149-155. https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2023-6/149
Bazaluk, O., Rahman, M. A., Zayed, N. M., Faisal-E-Alam, M., Nitsenko, V., & Kucher, L. (2024). Crowdsourcing review: the crowd workers’ perspective. Journal of Industrial and Business Economics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40812-023-00295-9
Bogush, L. (2022). Losses’ assessment in the Ukraine’ employment sphere due to military actions. Economic space, 182, 106-110. https://doi.org/10.32782/2224-6282/182-16
Djinni. (2024). Anonymous job search. https://djinni.co
European Business Association. (2024). Study of the labor market of Ukraine. https://eba.com.ua/doslidzhennya-rynku-pratsi-ukrayiny-2
Hudima, T., Ustymenko,V., Dzhabrailov, R., Oliukha, V. & Illarionov, O. (2021). Labour Market and Educational Services Trends in Post-Conflict Territories of Ukraine. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 10(3), 262-272. https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2021.v10n3p262
Huk, L., & Bilichenko, S. (2022). Flexible work arrangement and labour mobility in an economically unstable environment. Scientific works of the Interregional Academy of Personnel Management. Economic sciences, 2(65), 5-12. https://doi.org/10.32689/2523-4536/65-1
Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consultations. (2024). 21st Monthly survey of enterprises "Ukrainian business during the war". http://www.ier.com.ua/ua/institute/news?pid=7391
Institute of Professional Qualifications. (2024). Qualification map of Ukraine. https://www.futureskills.org.ua
Kovach, V.O. (2019). Forecasting the mechanism of the labor market management. Public administration, 5(20), 109-122. https://doi.org/10.32689/2617-2224-2019-5(20)-109-122
Kruhlov, V., & Tereshchenko, D. (2023). State policy for the human capital recovery in Ukraine in the post-war period. Education management, 2, 21-33. https://doi.org/10.32987/2617-8532-2023-2-21-33
Ladonko, L., Kalinko, I., & Filipova, N. (2023). Analysis of the labor market and ensuring state regulation of the level of employment of the population in Ukraine. Problems of modern transformations. Series: Economics and Management, 9. https://doi.org/10.54929/2786-5738-2023-9-07-01
Lehmann, H., & Pignatti, N. (2018). Informal employment relationships and the labor market: Is there segmentation in Ukraine? Journal of Comparative Economics, 46(3), 838–857. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2018.07.011
Lyubomudrova, N., & Hoichuk, V. (2022). Changes in the labor market under the conditions of martial law and prospects for post-war recovery. Economy and Society, 40. https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2022-40-31
Malynovska, O., & Yatsenko, L. (2023). The impact of war-induced forced migration abroad on the state of Ukraine's labor potential in the context of social sustainability. Problems and prospects of economics and management, 2(34), 7–25. https://doi.org/10.25140/2411-5215-2023-2(34)-7-25
Marshavin, Y., Kytsak, T., & Vasylenko, A. (2023). Modernization of the labor market on the basis of the concept of social responsibility as a basic condition for Ukraine’s recovery. Problems of Modern Transformations. Series: Economy and Management, 7. https://doi.org/10.54929/2786-5738-2023-7-07-02
Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine. (2013). Order № 305, Adoption on March 26, 2013 «On the approval of the Methodology for the formation of a medium-term forecast of the need for specialists and workers in the labor market». https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/v0305731-13#Text
National Agency of Qualifications. (2024). Qualifications. https://nqa.gov.ua/qualification-system/#id-qualificationacii
Novikova, O., Zaloznova, Y., & Azmuk, N. (2022). Restoring Ukraine’s human capital in the post-war period using the benefits of digitalization. Journal of European Economy, 21(4), 407-427. https://doi.org/10.35774/jee2022.04.399
Novikova, O.F., Zaloznova, Yu.S., Antoniuk, V.P., Khandii, O.O., Azmuk, N.A., Ostafiichuk, Ya.V., … Maltsev, O.Iu. (2024). Assessment of problems and opportunities of providing industry with labor force in the conditions of martial law and post-war development of Ukraine. Institute of Industrial Economics of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
Oleynik, T., & Zhurakovskaya, A. (2024). Labor market in Ukraine during the war. Young Scientist, 1 (125), 121-125. https://doi.org/10.32839/2304-5809/2024-1-125-3
Petrova, I. (2023). Innovative factors of labor activities, creativity and mobility. In Petrova, I., & Blyzniuk, V. (Eds.). Labor mobility of Ukraine: trends and prospects. Kyiv: State institution "Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine" (pp. 212-246).
Pham, T., Talavera, O., & Wu, Z. (2023). Labor markets during war time: Evidence from online job advertisements. Journal of Comparative Economics, 51(4), 1316–1333. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.06.002
Serohina, N. (2023). Employment of the population under martial law as an integral component of ensuring national security. Law and public administration, 2, 171-186. https://doi.org/10.32840/pdu.2023.2.26
Shapovalova, T., & Ihnatenko, A. (2023). Social policy of Ukraine in the field of employment under martial law. Economic Analysis, 33(2), 50-54. https://doi.org/10.35774/econa2023.02.050
Shvets, D., Pyvovar, M., Oleksiv, I., Zhyravetskyy, T., Marych, N. (2024). State policy in the field of employment: legal problems and prospects in the conditions of martial law. Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, 2, 185-193. https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2024-2/185
Skoryk, H. I., & Stanko, L.I. (2023). Problems and improvements of state regulation of employment in Ukraine. Scientific Perspectives, 5(35), 259-274. https://doi.org/10.52058/2708-7530-2023-5(35)-259-274
The Employers of Ukraine. (2023). The state is deceiving itself, using an outdated methodology of 2013 to forecast the needs of the labor market in 2024-2027. https://employers.org.ua/news/id2556
Trach, A. (2023). Use of globalization processes of intellectualization for human capital development of Ukraine in the post-war period. Young Scientist, 2(114), 121-126. https://doi.org/10.32839/2304-5809/2023-2-114-23
World Bank. (2023). Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group.
Zayed, N.M., Rashid, M.M., Darwish, S., Faisal-E-Alam, M., Nitsenko, V., & Islam, K.M.A. (2022). The Power of Compensation System (CS) on Employee Satisfaction (ES): The Mediating Role of Employee Motivation (EM). Economies, 10, 290. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10110290
Zolotukha, R., & Hlazunova, O. (2024). Theoretical foundations of information technology for automating the selection of candidates in the IT industry. Grail of Science, 35, 210–212. https://doi.org/10.36074/grail-of-science.19.01.2024.038
If the article is accepted for publication in the journal «Economics. Ecology. Socium» the author must sign an agreementon transfer of copyright. The agreement is sent to the postal (original) or e-mail address (scanned copy) of the journal editions.
