The Monitoring of the Livestock Product Market for the Formation of Food Security
Abstract
Introduction. The imbalance of the livestock product market due to significant challenges, such as large-scale military actions, reduced purchasing power, and changes in citizens' diets, presents other threats to food security. The influx of threats leads not only to a significant differentiation in the balance of demand and supply for meat and meat products by regions and strata of the population but also to a significant dynamism of the entire livestock market. This determines the need for changes in the methodology for monitoring and evaluating dynamic changes in the parameters affecting the production and consumption of livestock products.
Aim and tasks. This study aims to establish the peculiarities of monitoring the livestock market under significant dynamic changes in the main parameters affecting production and consumption volumes. The objectives of this study were to establish integral trends in the production of the main types of livestock products and to develop a mathematical model for evaluating the balance of production and consumption of livestock products.
Results. A break in the trend of stability of the pig and poultry population in 2021 and the continuation of the long-term trend of reduction in the cattle population was established, as evidenced by changes in the number of animals from 2023 to 2021: for cattle, by 20%; for pigs, by 16%; and for poultry, by 11%. This indicates that significant short-term fluctuations in influencing factors cause the production and consumption forecasts to be irrelevant. The influence of threats determines the deformation of markets for the production and consumption of livestock. This necessitates assessing dynamic changes in parameters affecting the volume of production and consumption of livestock products and the prompt formation of forecasts.
Conclusions. The developed mathematical model for assessing the balance of production and consumption of livestock products allows for considering dynamic changes in the main parameters of influence, which ensures the relevance of forecasts. This will enable prompt implementation of measures to regulate food security.
References
Ben Hassen, T., & El Bilali, H. (2022). Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War on Global Food Security: Towards More Sustainable and Resilient Food Systems? Foods, 11(15), 2301. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods11152301
Bioko, V., & Bioko, L. (2022). Food security and risks for agricultural production during the war in Ukraine. Economy and society, 41. https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2022-41-27
Bondarchuk, M. (2020). Strategic goals of food market development in the context of food security. Investments: practice and experience, 2, 76-81. https://doi.org/10.32702/2306-6814.2020.2.76
Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. (2007). Methods for determining the main indicators of food security. Decree of № 1379 URL: https://www.kmu.gov.ua/npas/99719937
Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. (2022). Plan of measures to ensure food security in the conditions of martial law (2022). Order of № 327-r. https://www.kmu.gov.ua/npas/pro-zatverdzhennya-planu-zahodiv-z-a327r
Dankevych, A., Sosnovska, O., Dobrianska, N., Nikolenko, L., Mazur, Yu., & Ingram, K., (2021). Ecological and economic management of innovation activity of enterprises. Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, 5, 118-124. https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2021-5/118
Dolynska, M., Yarmol, L., Ilkiv, N., Butynska, R., & Masin, V. (2023). Theoretical and legal aspects of the regulation of environmental and land legal relations in the conditions of martial law in Ukraine. Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, 2, 118-124. https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2023-2/118
FAO. (2020). Monitoring of food security and nutrition in support of the implementation of the Sustainable Development Agenda for the period up to 2030: summary and future plans. URL: https://www.fao.org/3/i6188e/i6188e.pdf
FAO. (2023). The Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS). http://www.hubrural.org/IMG/pdf/fao_giews_eng.pdf
Hadzalo, Ya. M., & Luzan, Yu. Ya. (2021). Development of the agricultural sector of Ukraine's economy under European integration. Economy of the agricultural sector, 8, 6-17. https://doi.org/10.32317/2221-1055.202108006
Hobela, V., Melnyk, S., & Kurliak, M. (2022). Food security of Ukraine against the war background: assessment and trends forecasting. Digital economy and economic security, 2, 92-98. https://doi.org/10.32782/dees.2-16
Infagro. (2023). Milk market. https://infagro.com.ua/ua/
Karpyak, М. (2018). Meat and meat products market in Ukraine in conditions of European integration: foreign economic aspects. Socio‐economic problems of the modern period of Ukraine, 3(131), 18-21.
Kovalova, O., Vytvytska, O., Rybchynsky, R., Kupchenko, A., & Tkachenko, S. (2023). Food security monitoring under martial law conditions. Financial and credit activities: theory and practice problems, 2(49), 274-286. https://doi.org/10.55643/fcaptp.2.49.2023.4004
Kurman, T.V. (2022). Agribusiness food security: threats and issues of legal regulation in martial law. Analytical and Comparative Jurisprudence, 3, 122-126. https://doi.org/10.24144/2788-6018.2022.03.22
Lagodiienko, V., Franchuk, V., Dziurakh, Yu., Melnyk, S., Shuprudko, N., & Hobela, V. (2022). Food Security of Ukraine: Estimation of Factors’ Impact, Postwar Trends and Ways to Supply. Financial and Credit Activity Problems of Theory and Practice, 5(46), 427–437. https://doi.org/10.55643/fcaptp.5.46.2022.3891
Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine. (2013). Methodological recommendations for calculating the level of economic security of Ukraine. Dated 10/29/2013 № 1277. URL: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/rada/show/v1277731-13#Text
Nikmatul, K., Ratya, A., Nuhfil, H., & Wahib, M.A. (2020). The analysis demand for animal source food in Indonesia: using Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. Business: Theory and Practice, 21(1), 427-439. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2020.10563
Pchelianska, G. (2018). Food security infrastructure formation. Economy. Finance. Management: Current Nutritional Science and Practice, 4, 68-80.
Petrychenko, V., Petrychenko, O., Fedoryshyna, L., Kravchuk, O., Korniichuk, O., & Nitsenko, V. (2022). Agricultural Production in Ukraine: Ecological Challenges and Impact on the Quality of Life. Financial and Credit Activity Problems of Theory and Practice, 4(45), 374–384. https://doi.org/10.55643/fcaptp.4.45.2022.3782.
Seheda, S.A. (2020). Statistical analysis of meat consumption and meat products in Ukraine. Economy of Agro-Industrial Complex, 3, 36-46. https://doi.org/10.32317/2221-1055.202003036
Shashkova, N., Ushkarenko, Iu., Soloviov, A., Osadchyi, O., & Nitsenko, V. (2021). Behavioral Segmentation of Baby Food Consumers: Risk Areas, Possible Solutions. The Case of Ukraine. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 10(1), 349-364. https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2021.v10n1p349.
Skydan, O., & Hrynyshyn, V. (2020). Risks and threats to ensuring food security of Ukraine: methodological foundations and practical evaluation. Economics & Education, 5, 2, 96–101. https://doi.org/10.30525/2500-946X/2020-2-14
State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (2023). Economic statistics / Economic activity / Agriculture, forestry and fishery / Stock – breeding. https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua
Strashynska, L., & Mykhailyk, O. (2023). The methodology using of taxonomic analysis for evaluation the level of food security in Ukraine. Economy and Society, 49. https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2023-49-33
Svyrydenko, D., & Revin, F. (2022a). The Ecological Dimension of Sustainable Development: Bringing Forth Pedagogics to Safeguard the Global Future. Future Human Image, 18, 74-81. https://doi.org/10.29202/fhi/18/7
Svyrydenko, D., & Revin, F. (2022b). Assessing the Policies of Ukraine’s Sustainable Development: Heading toward 2030 Strategy Realization. Ukrainian Policymaker, 11, 85-91. https://doi.org/10.29202/up/11/11
Tsikhanovskaya, V. & Alekseenko, A. (2018). The theoretical aspects of the forming of the strategy of development of enterprises for the meat production sub-complex. Investytsiyi: Praktyka Ta Dosvid, 8, 18–21.
Turpurova, T., & Vorona, N. (2022). Food security of the Odessa region: today and prospects. Grain Products and Mixed Fodder’s, 22 (4, 88), 28-35. https://doi.org/10.15673
Vytvytska, O.D., & Kovalova, O.V. (2022). Analytical assurance of food security: a retrospective analysis. Ukrainian Journal of Applied Economics, 3(7), 101-106. https://doi.org/10.36887/2415-8453-2022-3-14
Zalizniuk, V. (2019). Assessment of the indicators of food security of Ukraine. Investytsiyi: Praktyka Ta Dosvid, 2, 128. https://doi.org/10.32702/2306-6814.2019.2.128
If the article is accepted for publication in the journal «Economics. Ecology. Socium» the author must sign an agreementon transfer of copyright. The agreement is sent to the postal (original) or e-mail address (scanned copy) of the journal editions.
